Does Specification Matter? Experiments with Simple Multiregional Probabilistic Population Projections.

Modelling regional population growth in China.

"This paper develops a forward demographic rates-based multiregional population model on the basis of a set of multiregional population accounts. Forward emigration rates and immigration flows are adopted to describe the external migrations. The model is used to make consistent multiregional population projections of China at a provincial level.... Three sets of multiregional population project...

Multiregional Population Projections

A multiregional population-projection framework that incorporates both migration and residential mobility streams: application to metropolitan city-suburb redistribution.

"In this paper the author introduces a population-projection framework that incorporates interregional migration and intraregional residential mobility streams to project future population sizes both across and within regions in a manner that is consistent with existing migration theory. The author presents a general matrix model of the framework, shows how its parameters can be estimated from...

Multiregional, not multiple origins.

Multiregional evolution is a model to account for the pattern of human evolution in the Pleistocene. The underlying hypothesis is that a worldwide network of genic exchanges, between evolving human populations that continually divide and reticulate, provides a frame of population interconnections that allows both species-wide evolutionary change and local distinctions and differentiation. "Mult...

The United Nations Probabilistic Population Projections: An Introduction to Demographic Forecasting with Uncertainty.

The United Nations publishes projections of populations around the world and breaks these down by age and sex. Traditionally, they are produced with standard demographic methods based on assumptions about future fertility rates, survival probabilities, and migration counts. Such projections, however, were not accompanied by formal statements of uncertainty expressed in probabilistic terms. In J...